Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2018-02-26 · Centre Bell

1 – 0Final/SO

PHI beat MTL 1–0 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (PHI 3.0, MTL 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. Petr Mrazek saved 4.0 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
33 – 28
Expected goals
3.0 – 3.1
xG share
MTL 51%
Home-ice start
MTL 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

PHI goalMTL goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

PHIMTL

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

PHI
65:00 TOI
GSAx +3.97
+3.97
MTL
65:00 TOI
GSAx +2.44
+2.44
PHI
Jakub Voracek
0 G, 0 A · 19:07 TOI
On-ice −0.30 · Finishing −0.22 · Playmaking +0.06 · Penalties +0.18 · Shootout +1.04
+0.75

Rough nights

MTL
0 G, 0 A · 18:54 TOI
On-ice −0.19 · Finishing −0.39 · Shootout −0.46
−1.01
PHI
Nolan Patrick
0 G, 0 A · 17:11 TOI
On-ice −0.30 · Finishing −0.21 · Faceoffs +0.05 · Shootout −0.36
−0.82
MTL
Jonathan Drouin
0 G, 0 A · 17:39 TOI
On-ice −0.16 · Finishing −0.20 · Penalties −0.18 · Faceoffs −0.10 · Shootout −0.14
−0.80

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalPHI–MTLWin prob.

Every player

Show both lineups

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Jakub Voracek R19:07+0.75−0.30−0.22+0.06−0.01+0.18+0.01+1.04
Sean Couturier C23:02+0.72+0.22−0.59+0.03−0.00+0.00+0.03+1.04
Radko Gudas D17:35+0.06+0.08−0.03+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Scott Laughton C12:02−0.03−0.01−0.04−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.03+0.00
Shayne Gostisbehere D23:50−0.03+0.01−0.04+0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Robert Hagg D17:37−0.07−0.08−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Brandon Manning D17:36−0.08−0.05−0.00−0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Raffl L12:17−0.10−0.07−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00
Ivan Provorov D22:04−0.12+0.21−0.14−0.01−0.01−0.18+0.00+0.00
Claude Giroux R21:57−0.16+0.16−0.24+0.03−0.00+0.18+0.02−0.31
Jori Lehtera C12:50−0.19−0.06−0.16+0.01+0.02+0.00+0.01−0.00
Valtteri Filppula C15:48−0.21−0.24−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.04−0.00
Dale Weise R12:24−0.30−0.12−0.18−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Travis Konecny R19:23−0.33+0.46−0.51+0.01−0.01+0.18+0.00−0.46
Andrew MacDonald D20:54−0.33−0.31−0.01−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Oskar Lindblom L16:29−0.34−0.15−0.18−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Jordan Weal C10:54−0.48−0.02−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01−0.46
Nolan Patrick C17:11−0.82−0.30−0.21−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.05−0.36
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Petr Mrazek G65:00+3.97

MTL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Paul Byron L16:15+0.67+0.01−0.13−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.82
Noah Juulsen D20:11+0.14−0.05+0.01+0.00−0.01+0.18+0.00+0.00
Victor Mete D22:13+0.12+0.17−0.07+0.00+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Karl Alzner D21:21+0.10+0.08+0.01−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Logan Shaw R11:47+0.02+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jordie Benn D16:58+0.01+0.01+0.01+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Daniel Carr L11:21−0.06−0.06−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jeff Petry D23:25−0.12−0.01−0.06−0.01−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Brendan Gallagher R14:32−0.17+0.28−0.48+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.03−0.00
Phillip Danault C17:19−0.19−0.00−0.14−0.02+0.00+0.00−0.03+0.00
Nicolas Deslauriers L12:25−0.19−0.05−0.13−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alex Galchenyuk C17:18−0.35+0.10−0.13+0.01−0.02+0.00−0.01−0.31
Max Pacioretty L18:44−0.47+0.07−0.34+0.01−0.03−0.18+0.00+0.00
David Schlemko D19:13−0.50−0.03−0.01+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.46
Jacob de la Rose L14:17−0.52+0.17−0.43−0.01+0.00−0.18−0.07+0.00
Charles Hudon L15:10−0.73−0.01−0.24−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01−0.46
Jonathan Drouin L17:39−0.80−0.16−0.20+0.00−0.02−0.18−0.10−0.14
Artturi Lehkonen L18:54−1.01−0.19−0.39−0.00+0.03+0.00+0.00−0.46
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Charlie Lindgren G65:00+2.44

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.