EDM beat ANA 6–5 in a shootout. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rickard Rakell scored on the power play at 19:53 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 4% to 51%. Ryan Miller allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:13 | EDM | Leon Draisaitl from Michael Cammalleri | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:46 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Cam Fowler, Ryan Getzlaf | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 12:55 | EDM | Anton Slepyshev from Connor McDavid, Michael Cammalleri | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:22 | ANA | Adam HenriquePP from Brandon Montour, Ryan Getzlaf | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 8:02 | EDM | Ryan Strome from Leon Draisaitl, Al Montoya | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 2:31 | EDM | Ryan Strome from Jesse Puljujarvi, Connor McDavid | 4–2 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 14:00 | ANA | Ryan Getzlaf from Corey Perry, Hampus Lindholm | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 15:40 | EDM | Iiro Pakarinen from Connor McDavid, Milan Lucic | 5–3 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 19:39 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry | 5–4 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 19:53 | ANA | Rickard RakellPP from Corey Perry, Derek Grant | 5–5 | 4% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:26 | 1 | 1 | +1.66 | +0.10 | +0.63 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.82 |
| Ryan Strome C | 12:10 | 2 | +1.43 | −0.17 | +1.60 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Slepyshev L | 18:34 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.18 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 11:28 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 24:19 | +0.38 | +0.45 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yohann Auvitu D | 13:49 | +0.05 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 18:04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 27:22 | 3 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −1.12 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.04 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 4:48 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 7:51 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 17:09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:36 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Rattie R | 14:24 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 17:56 | 2 | −0.45 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.31 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 13:15 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 20:45 | 1 | −0.51 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 21:17 | −0.60 | −0.51 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:30 | −0.63 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 63:05 | −0.70 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 16:53 | 3 | +2.69 | +0.28 | +1.56 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | +0.69 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 19:38 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.37 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 21:18 | 1 | 3 | +0.50 | +0.29 | +0.36 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 |
| Brandon Montour D | 25:36 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 8:35 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.26 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 22:03 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 12:16 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Corey Perry R | 18:16 | 3 | +0.05 | +0.31 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wagner R | 10:41 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 26:29 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 11:27 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bieksa D | 14:20 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JT Brown R | 12:00 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 17:40 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 16:22 | −0.58 | −0.46 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 22:13 | −0.66 | −0.56 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 14:10 | −0.78 | +0.17 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.46 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 63:05 | −2.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.