FLA beat PIT 6–5. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Evgenii Dadonov scored at 18:07 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Tristan Jarry allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:44 | FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Denis Malgin, Keith Yandle | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:40 |  PIT | Carl Hagelin from Evgeni Malkin, Jamie Oleksiak | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:21 | FLA | Evgenii Dadonov from Aleksander Barkov, Nick Bjugstad | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 2:07 | FLA | Jamie McGinn from Jared McCann, Alexander Petrovic | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 8:12 | FLA | Derek MacKenzie from Colton Sceviour, Alexander Petrovic | 1–4 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 13:10 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Bryan Rust, Matt Hunwick | 2–4 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 0:46 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Carl Hagelin | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 1:44 | FLA | Evgenii Dadonov from Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle | 3–5 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 14:21 | PIT | Patric HornqvistPP from Phil Kessel, Sidney Crosby | 4–5 | 2% → 12% |
| P3 15:10 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Brian Dumoulin | 5–5 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 18:07 | FLA | Evgenii Dadonov from Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau | 5–6 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:13 | 2 | 1 | +1.89 | +0.30 | +1.54 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Carl Hagelin L | 15:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.24 | +0.42 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Bryan Rust R | 16:38 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.10 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Letang D | 25:33 | +0.11 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:43 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.19 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hunwick D | 14:22 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Schultz D | 23:02 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:22 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 9:20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 13:24 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 19:42 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 20:21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 5:23 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 14:53 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.27 | −0.42 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominik Simon C | 9:01 | −0.31 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 20:47 | 1 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 30:27 | −0.95 |
| Tristan Jarry G | 28:12 | −2.44 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 20:16 | 3 | +2.36 | −0.21 | +2.58 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie McGinn L | 14:20 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek MacKenzie C | 9:24 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:12 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.05 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jared McCann L | 13:16 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 21:41 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Haley L | 8:55 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 12:56 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 12:15 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 24:50 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Maxim Mamin C | 10:34 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 19:21 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian McCoshen D | 14:00 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 13:28 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:29 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:20 | −0.28 | −0.19 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 16:33 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.09 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:56 | 3 | −0.50 | −0.22 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 60:00 | −1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.