ARI beat EDM 1–0. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Christian Dvorak scored at 3:26 of the first, moving ARI’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Antti Raanta saved 5.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:26 | ARI | Christian Dvorak from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Christian Fischer | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Caggiula L | 14:55 | +0.30 | +0.50 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:01 | +0.24 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 22:37 | +0.14 | +0.29 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 21:19 | +0.12 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:04 | +0.07 | +0.35 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 9:45 | +0.00 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 17:32 | −0.03 | +0.27 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 19:09 | −0.05 | +0.28 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Anton Slepyshev L | 15:42 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Yohann Auvitu D | 12:35 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 13:23 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brandon Davidson D | 15:09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 12:53 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 13:19 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:59 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 18:56 | −0.14 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 12:45 | −0.24 | +0.42 | −0.45 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 15:21 | −0.32 | +0.17 | −0.45 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 58:36 | +1.44 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak C | 12:53 | 1 | +0.28 | −0.06 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Demers D | 16:43 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:13 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 16:43 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 17:02 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:18 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Archibald R | 9:38 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 18:29 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:34 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 11:45 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 14:34 | −0.36 | −0.12 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:39 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:36 | −0.47 | −0.13 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 15:57 | −0.48 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 17:48 | −0.51 | −0.28 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 19:12 | −0.57 | −0.47 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 23:44 | −0.65 | −0.60 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:38 | −0.74 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 59:34 | +5.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.