OTT beat NYR 6–3. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mark Stone scored at 1:03 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Henrik Lundqvist allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:03 | OTT | Mark Stone from Derick Brassard, Zack Smith | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 12:07 | OTT | Johnny Oduya from Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 16:01 | NYR | Michael Grabner from Ryan Sproul, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 11:59 | OTT | Matt Duchene from Cody Ceci, Thomas Chabot | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 14:31 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller | 2–3 | 11% → 25% |
| P2 18:53 | OTT | Derick Brassard from Mark Borowiecki, Zack Smith | 2–4 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 7:27 | OTT | Thomas Chabot from Derick Brassard, Mark Stone | 2–5 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 15:11 | NYR | Michael Grabner from Kevin Hayes | 3–5 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 17:15 | OTT | Magnus Paajarvi from Cody Ceci, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grabner L | 15:27 | 2 | +1.72 | +0.05 | +1.53 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:25 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 14:29 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.17 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 18:01 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 15:37 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Gilmour D | 16:30 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:22 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 11:41 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 16:53 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 11:03 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 20:17 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 11:10 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:20 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Sproul D | 15:00 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:31 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 23:00 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 14:34 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Halverson G | 12:33 | −0.39 |
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 47:25 | −2.64 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Chabot D | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.13 | +0.86 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 15:37 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 16:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.03 | +0.31 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Oduya D | 18:22 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.89 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 18:18 | 1 | 2 | +0.43 | +0.00 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Matt Duchene C | 17:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.10 | +0.55 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Cody Ceci D | 23:53 | 2 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max McCormick L | 9:37 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 19:24 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marian Gaborik R | 16:45 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Shore C | 10:57 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:36 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 11:34 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:20 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 28:03 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Dumont C | 10:57 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 14:38 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 16:36 | 2 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.51 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 60:00 | −0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.