WPG beat WSH 4–3 in overtime. WPG also won the expected-goals battle 5.3 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Tyler Myers scored at 2:35 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Braden Holtby saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:41 |  WPG | Mark Scheifele from Dustin Byfuglien, Mathieu Perreault | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:37 | WSH | Nicklas Backstrom from Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 11:22 | WSH | Andre Burakovsky from Lars Eller, Alex Chiasson | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 7:01 | WSH | John Carlson from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Brett Connolly | 3–1 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 11:30 | WPG | Bryan Little from Jack Roslovic, Dustin Byfuglien | 3–2 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 19:45 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault | 3–3 | 4% → 49% |
| OT 2:35 | WPG | Tyler Myers from Mark Scheifele | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Burakovsky L | 10:43 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.03 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.08 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 14:30 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.08 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 15:31 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 10:09 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:19 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 13:19 | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 21:08 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.49 | +0.38 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:00 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 11:54 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 12:56 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 18:33 | −0.25 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 26:05 | −0.53 | −0.54 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 14:53 | −0.55 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 25:36 | −0.56 | −0.52 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 17:33 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.46 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:50 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.48 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 62:32 | +1.09 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 23:40 | 2 | 1 | +1.79 | +0.76 | +1.01 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Tyler Myers D | 23:58 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.20 | +0.42 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Little C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.14 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 18:22 | +0.47 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:12 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.51 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hendricks C | 5:43 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 15:11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:01 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 27:57 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.39 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:09 | +0.01 | +0.26 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 13:52 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 12:51 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 9:37 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 13:54 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 12:40 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 19:04 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.56 | −0.91 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Blake Wheeler R | 24:07 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.27 | −0.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 19:08 | −0.56 | +0.29 | −0.83 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:41 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.