MIN beat NYR 3–2. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Eric Staal scored at 3:09 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:09 |  MIN | Eric Staal unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:34 | MIN | Zach Parise unassisted | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 6:17 | MIN | Marcus Foligno from Daniel Winnik, Joel Eriksson Ek | 0–3 | 83% → 89% |
| P1 8:50 | NYR | John GilmourPP from Tony DeAngelo, Kevin Hayes | 1–3 | 10% → 17% |
| P2 11:46 | NYR | Kevin HayesPP from Michael Grabner, Neal Pionk | 2–3 | 12% → 26% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.01 | +0.40 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.07 |
| John Gilmour D | 18:06 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.04 | +0.41 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 21:13 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 16:54 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Sproul D | 10:58 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinni Lettieri C | 9:52 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 11:21 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 14:47 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 25:28 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:11 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 14:03 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 12:48 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:57 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody McLeod L | 9:14 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.24 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 26:29 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:25 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 15:53 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 58:50 | −0.84 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:50 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.39 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Parise L | 15:56 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.06 | +0.38 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Staal C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.40 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Gustav Olofsson D | 20:00 | +0.25 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 13:03 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:24 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 26:09 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:19 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 13:00 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 10:41 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:51 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikko Koivu C | 15:41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 14:32 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 15:57 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:06 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:40 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Prosser D | 13:24 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:04 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.36 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 59:56 | +0.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.