NSH beat STL 4–3 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Filip Forsberg scored on the power play at 1:19 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:18 | STL | Jay Bouwmeester from Patrik Berglund, Brayden Schenn | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 3:10 | STL | Alexander Steen from Paul Stastny, Vladimir Tarasenko | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 9:00 | STL | Jaden SchwartzPP from Alexander Steen, Vladimir Tarasenko | 3–0 | 84% → 95% |
| P3 9:06 | NSH | Calle Jarnkrok from Mattias Ekholm, P.K. Subban | 3–1 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 14:33 | NSH | Austin WatsonSH from Ryan Ellis, Colton Sissons | 3–2 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 15:48 | NSH | Austin Watson from Craig Smith, Roman Josi | 3–3 | 12% → 51% |
| OT 1:19 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 26:05 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.05 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Steen L | 18:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.09 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 9:55 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Thorburn R | 5:22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 14:05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 6:09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 12:50 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 10:29 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 18:54 | −0.10 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 16:08 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 11:55 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:15 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:15 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.16 | −0.60 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.02 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:49 | 2 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:56 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:30 | −0.50 | −0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 61:19 | −0.82 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Watson L | 12:28 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.18 | +1.52 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:07 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.24 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.13 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 13:00 | +0.26 | +0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:24 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:12 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Hartnell L | 15:40 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 6:39 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 23:44 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:04 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 21:50 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yannick Weber D | 11:12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 13:29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 18:32 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:37 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.12 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:56 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.19 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 13:10 | 1 | −0.75 | +0.16 | −0.72 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 60:53 | +0.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.