DET beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (DET 2.4, WSH 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Tomas Tatar scored at 2:47 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Braden Holtby allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:20 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 13:37 | DET | Justin Abdelkader from Frans Nielsen | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 16:53 | DET | Luke Glendening from Darren Helm, Frans Nielsen | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:02 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Henrik Zetterberg, Nick Jensen | 3–1 | 71% → 88% |
| P2 19:49 | DET | Tomas Tatar from Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou | 4–1 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 2:32 | WSH | Brett Connolly from Jay Beagle | 4–2 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 14:02 | WSH | Dmitry Orlov from Devante Smith-Pelly, Jay Beagle | 4–3 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 19:43 | WSH | Nicklas BackstromPP from John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 2:47 | DET | Tomas Tatar from Dylan Larkin, Nick Jensen | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:28 | 2 | +1.93 | +0.20 | +1.55 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 14:00 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:42 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.25 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 21:46 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.10 | +0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 21:53 | +0.27 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 21:59 | +0.17 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 17:02 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Darren Helm C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 15:11 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Booth L | 2:30 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:48 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.21 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 21:29 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 18:05 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 18:20 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 17:49 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Frk R | 6:54 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 21:39 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 21:36 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 62:31 | −0.96 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 21:00 | 1 | +1.10 | −0.06 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.03 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:48 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.10 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 14:26 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.18 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:43 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.13 | +0.70 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Matt Niskanen D | 21:56 | +0.17 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 12:20 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 13:42 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 11:58 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Madison Bowey D | 16:20 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 14:54 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:02 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 18:09 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:03 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:02 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 11:41 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 16:35 | −0.42 | +0.01 | −0.46 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:08 | −0.52 | −0.03 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:38 | −0.72 | −0.35 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 60:43 | −2.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.