ARI beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 3:55 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:13 | MIN | Eric Staal from Jared Spurgeon, Tyler Ennis | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:54 | MIN | Matt Cullen from Mathew Dumba, Gustav Olofsson | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 9:59 | MIN | Mike Reilly from Matt Cullen, Zach Parise | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 11:30 | ARI | Nick Cousins from Alex Goligoski, Brad Richardson | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 8:02 | ARI | Kevin Connauton from Derek Stepan, Alex Goligoski | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 19:41 | ARI | Nick CousinsPP from Derek Stepan, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 3:55 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Brendan Perlini, Kevin Connauton | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cousins C | 14:41 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.14 | +1.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:47 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.27 | +0.70 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.11 | +0.55 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tobias Rieder L | 18:09 | +0.17 | +0.24 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:50 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.15 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 18:07 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 18:18 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 18:32 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 19:02 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 19:58 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:58 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Richardson R | 15:16 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:09 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:42 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 11:48 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 11:17 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 18:12 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zac Rinaldo C | 10:31 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 62:47 | −0.64 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reilly D | 12:29 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 15:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.61 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Eric Staal C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.12 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:17 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 12:25 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 27:30 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 12:23 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:44 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nate Prosser D | 12:08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 14:16 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 18:42 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 29:50 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 23:14 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 14:39 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Olofsson D | 20:31 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:48 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 16:02 | −0.44 | −0.37 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikko Koivu C | 17:27 | −0.62 | −0.21 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 63:55 | −1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.