OTT beat NSH 4–3 in overtime. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mike Hoffman scored at 3:01 of overtime, moving OTT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Juuse Saros allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:34 | NSH | P.K. Subban unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:00 | OTT | Christopher DiDomenico from Ryan Dzingel, Zack Smith | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 18:05 | NSH | Calle Jarnkrok from Nick Bonino, Scott Hartnell | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:08 | OTT | Max McCormick from Ryan Dzingel, Mark Borowiecki | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 11:59 | OTT | Magnus Paajarvi from Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 15:42 | NSH | P.K. Subban from Scott Hartnell, Roman Josi | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 3:01 | OTT | Mike Hoffman from Thomas Chabot, Matt Duchene | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.K. Subban D | 22:36 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.10 | +1.56 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:40 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.04 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Scott Hartnell L | 12:22 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Fiala L | 14:30 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 17:47 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 12:18 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 14:07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:25 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Yannick Weber D | 14:09 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 9:26 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 23:12 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Aberg L | 11:04 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 19:36 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 14:41 | −0.21 | +0.13 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 15:55 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:52 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.15 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Craig Smith C | 18:18 | −0.72 | −0.06 | −0.68 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 63:01 | −1.06 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max McCormick L | 6:13 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.08 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 16:34 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.23 | +0.57 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christopher DiDomenico L | 15:29 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 18:36 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.03 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Chabot D | 15:52 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 16:25 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 22:44 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.12 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Smith C | 22:59 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 23:50 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Claesson D | 9:21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Oduya D | 18:32 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 19:06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:55 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 19:01 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 16:52 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Blunden R | 6:31 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 20:38 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colin White C | 16:25 | −0.34 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 63:01 | −0.71 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.