BUF beat NYI 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.5, BUF 2.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sam Reinhart scored at 15:46 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 90%. Jaroslav Halak allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:41 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Sam Reinhart, Casey Nelson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:21 | BUF | Evan Rodrigues from Marco Scandella, Sam Reinhart | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 7:18 | BUF | Ryan O'ReillyPP from Rasmus Ristolainen, Kyle Okposo | 0–3 | 88% → 95% |
| P2 13:06 | NYI | John Tavares from Brock Nelson, Thomas Hickey | 1–3 | 3% → 11% |
| P3 7:30 | NYI | Ross Johnston from Cal Clutterbuck | 2–3 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 14:33 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 15:46 | BUF | Sam Reinhart from Evan Rodrigues, Jack Eichel | 3–4 | 51% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Johnston L | 8:26 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 19:52 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.02 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Tavares C | 21:09 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.02 | +0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:35 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 20:03 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 22:48 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 14:02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 8:45 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:20 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:48 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:18 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Dennis Seidenberg D | 16:38 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:44 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:10 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 16:14 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 17:20 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 13:51 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 20:53 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.34 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 58:35 | −1.29 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 11:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.23 | +0.57 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 15:03 | 1 | 2 | +0.94 | +0.24 | +0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.22 | +0.62 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.03 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:58 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.62 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 17:02 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 27:37 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Gorges D | 15:57 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Nolan C | 9:40 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Nelson D | 21:47 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 19:38 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Benoit Pouliot L | 12:04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Josefson C | 10:14 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 11:18 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Antipin D | 13:32 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 17:48 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:46 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 13:58 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 60:00 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.