VAN beat CHI 4–2. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored at 9:58 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Anton Forsberg allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:15 | CHI | Nick Schmaltz from Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 5:33 | VAN | Brendan Gaunce from Troy Stecher | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:58 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Troy Stecher, Alexander Edler | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 2:55 | VAN | Daniel Sedin from Jake Virtanen, Henrik Sedin | 1–3 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 10:19 | CHI | Alex DeBrincat from Jonathan Toews, Duncan Keith | 2–3 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 17:02 | VAN | Brendan Gaunce from Loui Eriksson, Brandon Sutter | 2–4 | 92% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:28 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.22 | +0.60 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:46 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.01 | +0.24 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 22:48 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.04 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.05 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:45 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 23:11 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Wingels C | 8:51 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:38 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 13:18 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson D | 15:34 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:37 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 23:59 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 15:22 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Jurco R | 9:39 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 21:07 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 13:20 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 8:49 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 22:23 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.32 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Michal Kempny D | 14:09 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 57:16 | −1.86 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gaunce C | 17:54 | 2 | +1.60 | +0.10 | +1.51 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sedin L | 11:05 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.07 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 19:13 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 19:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 22:44 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 15:44 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Sedin C | 11:50 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 3:15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 23:18 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 18:42 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Derrick Pouliot D | 13:13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 14:55 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 19:37 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 23:06 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Virtanen R | 11:15 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 12:34 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Baertschi L | 15:58 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | +0.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.