COL beat EDM 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (COL 2.6, EDM 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: J.T. Compher scored at 2:28 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Al Montoya allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:04 | COL | Nikita Zadorov unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:52 | COL | Samuel GirardPP from Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 9:11 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl, Michael Cammalleri | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 19:31 | COL | Blake ComeauSH unassisted | 3–1 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 6:52 | EDM | Drake Caggiula from Ryan Strome, Matt Benning | 3–2 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 19:32 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Leon Draisaitl, Kris Russell | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 2:28 | COL | J.T. Compher from Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Comeau L | 17:14 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.79 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 17:04 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.15 | +0.35 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:05 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 24:45 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.04 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 17:40 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nail Yakupov R | 10:35 | +0.20 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 28:06 | +0.13 | +0.32 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 14:46 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.17 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 15:36 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 11:36 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anton Lindholm D | 13:57 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 15:53 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 9:54 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 17:22 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 20:18 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 17:26 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:45 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 15:35 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.48 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 62:15 | −0.32 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 21:33 | 2 | +1.08 | −0.12 | +0.98 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 17:59 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.03 | +0.31 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.36 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Benning D | 18:05 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.28 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Cammalleri L | 17:57 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 23:31 | −0.03 | +0.20 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 19:56 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 19:28 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:29 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andrej Sekera D | 15:37 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 18:14 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Letestu C | 7:35 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 9:42 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Slepyshev L | 8:42 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 15:40 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:18 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brandon Davidson D | 17:48 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 16:46 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:24 | −0.60 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 61:31 | −1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.