NYR beat SJS 6–5. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan McDonagh scored at 11:04 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 26% to 47%. Aaron Dell allowed 2.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:45 | NYR | Kevin Hayes from J.T. Miller, Mats Zuccarello | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:45 | SJS | Barclay Goodrow from Brent Burns | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 10:56 | SJS | Logan Couture from Kevin Labanc, Joakim Ryan | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:53 | NYR | Jesper Fast from Michael Grabner, Peter Holland | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:36 | SJS | Logan Couture from Kevin Labanc, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 11:04 | NYR | Ryan McDonagh from Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 12:16 | NYR | Ryan McDonaghPP from Pavel Buchnevich | 4–3 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 17:09 | NYR | Brady SkjeiSH unassisted | 5–3 | 70% → 87% |
| P3 10:51 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Justin Braun, Chris Tierney | 5–4 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:10 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Mats Zuccarello, Brady Skjei | 6–4 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 19:10 | SJS | Tomas HertlPP from Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns | 6–5 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan McDonagh D | 24:26 | 2 | +1.55 | −0.07 | +1.60 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 15:12 | 1 | +1.00 | −0.06 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 15:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.17 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kevin Hayes R | 17:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.26 | +0.60 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brady Skjei D | 22:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:19 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.08 | −0.33 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 20:03 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 13:14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 10:24 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 11:08 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 18:22 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 12:20 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 20:58 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 14:00 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 16:45 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.08 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 15:06 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:10 | −0.53 | −0.11 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 60:00 | −2.25 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Couture C | 20:13 | 2 | +1.91 | +0.24 | +1.64 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 21:27 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.26 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 23:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:22 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Justin Braun D | 22:27 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 16:21 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 13:50 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marcus Sorensen L | 7:49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 17:24 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:28 | −0.03 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 18:10 | 3 | −0.03 | +0.22 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 13:26 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:45 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Ward R | 9:33 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 15:15 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 13:21 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 14:02 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:01 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 58:21 | −2.90 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.