NYI beat VGK 2–1. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ross Johnston scored at 10:01 of the second, moving NYI’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Jaroslav Halak saved 2.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:01 | NYI | Ross Johnston from Ryan Pulock, Cal Clutterbuck | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 8:21 | NYI | Jordan Eberle from Mathew Barzal, Anthony Beauvillier | 2–0 | 78% → 94% |
| P3 14:53 |  VGK | Erik HaulaPP from David Perron, Colin Miller | 2–1 | 2% → 13% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Johnston L | 6:56 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.05 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:14 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.08 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 17:23 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 16:40 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Chimera L | 12:56 | +0.09 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:19 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alan Quine C | 8:01 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 25:16 | −0.13 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 15:59 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 14:26 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Tanner Fritz C | 11:37 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 18:36 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 16:26 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 24:52 | −0.40 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 21:52 | −0.44 | −0.33 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 19:59 | −0.45 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 20:23 | −0.56 | −0.36 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 12:08 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.05 | −0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 60:00 | +2.66 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 16:44 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.12 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 20:01 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| James Neal L | 18:53 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:14 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:16 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 18:59 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 24:00 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 20:00 | −0.01 | +0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 11:55 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 19:40 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:30 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 18:47 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.31 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 18:01 | −0.16 | +0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 17:02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 9:31 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 14:00 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 14:39 | −0.45 | +0.32 | −0.77 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 58:45 | +0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.