WPG beat SJS 5–4 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bryan Little scored at 0:18 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Aaron Dell allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:18 | WPG | Mathieu Perreault from Nikolaj Ehlers, Bryan Little | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 4:32 | WPG | Joel Armia from Andrew Copp, Jacob Trouba | 2–0 | 63% → 75% |
| P1 11:56 | WPG | Bryan LittlePP from Tyler Myers, Mathieu Perreault | 3–0 | 78% → 91% |
| P1 19:14 | SJS | Joe Pavelski unassisted | 3–1 | 8% → 20% |
| P2 9:38 | SJS | Logan Couture from Joel Ward, Brenden Dillon | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 13:25 | SJS | Chris TierneyPP from Joe Thornton, Brent Burns | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 11:38 | WPG | Joel Armia from Brandon Tanev, Tyler Myers | 4–3 | 48% → 82% |
| P3 15:20 | SJS | Timo Meier from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Joe Pavelski | 4–4 | 13% → 52% |
| OT 0:18 | WPG | Bryan Little from Dustin Byfuglien, Nikolaj Ehlers | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Armia R | 14:47 | 2 | +1.40 | −0.02 | +1.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Little C | 19:34 | 2 | 1 | +1.37 | +0.06 | +1.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 17:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.04 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 3:04 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 15:03 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Matt Hendricks C | 9:30 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:27 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marko Dano C | 5:53 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 26:20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 25:41 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.28 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 17:10 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:37 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:39 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:44 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 10:42 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 17:08 | −0.40 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:40 | −0.59 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.01 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 24:58 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.43 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:18 | −1.08 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tierney C | 19:11 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.86 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Timo Meier R | 15:18 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.12 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.54 | −0.05 | |
| Logan Couture C | 21:28 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.06 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Justin Braun D | 21:41 | +0.34 | +0.35 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 22:03 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.34 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 12:35 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 20:22 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.08 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 12:55 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Ward R | 11:34 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 13:11 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 14:33 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 2:34 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 14:11 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jannik Hansen R | 9:06 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 19:18 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 14:26 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:51 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 60:18 | −2.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.