ARI beat NYI 3–2 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nick Cousins scored at 2:21 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Antti Raanta saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:20 | ARI | Nick Cousins from Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 0:34 |  NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Josh Bailey | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:52 | ARI | Brendan Perlini from Luke Schenn, Nick Cousins | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 2:53 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Thomas Hickey, Mathew Barzal | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| OT 2:21 | ARI | Nick Cousins from Christian Fischer | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:44 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.12 | +1.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:48 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:32 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 18:29 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Johnston L | 10:04 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 11:47 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alan Quine C | 9:35 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 19:17 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:53 | −0.12 | +0.36 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 25:25 | −0.16 | +0.48 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 16:44 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:19 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Fritz C | 9:48 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:30 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 18:12 | −0.23 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:48 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 14:38 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 17:33 | −0.43 | +0.20 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 62:18 | −0.04 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cousins C | 13:59 | 2 | 1 | +1.25 | −0.06 | +1.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brendan Perlini L | 17:22 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.08 | +0.45 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 14:32 | +0.23 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:22 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 16:14 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 13:29 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 20:17 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 12:19 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 20:27 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:59 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 21:05 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 15:15 | −0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:58 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 13:51 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 16:28 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 12:42 | −0.44 | +0.13 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 18:54 | −0.47 | −0.40 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 15:50 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.23 | −0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 62:21 | +1.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.