Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2018-01-20 · Wells Fargo Center

1 – 3Final

PHI beat NJD 3–1. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Travis Konecny scored at 3:29 of the first, moving PHI’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Kenneth Appleby saved 2.2 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
29 – 31
Expected goals
1.9 – 3.6
xG share
PHI 66%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

NJD goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

NJDPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

NJD
Kenneth Appleby
46:04 TOI
GSAx +2.22
+2.22
PHI
Michal Neuvirth
59:43 TOI
GSAx +1.09
+1.09
PHI
1 G, 1 A · 14:30 TOI
On-ice +0.09 · Finishing +0.85 · Penalties −0.18
+0.76

Rough nights

NJD
Keith Kinkaid
12:15 TOI
GSAx −2.22
−2.22
PHI
0 G, 1 A · 8:58 TOI
Finishing −0.22 · Penalties −0.36
−0.56
NJD
0 G, 0 A · 17:39 TOI
Finishing −0.12 · Penalties −0.36
−0.49

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalNJD–PHIWin prob.
P1 3:29 PHITravis Konecny
from Shayne Gostisbehere, Scott Laughton
0–153% → 69%
P1 8:30 PHIValtteri Filppula
from Michael Raffl, Radko Gudas
0–270% → 83%
P1 12:15 PHIIvan Provorov
from Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux
0–384% → 91%
P2 8:12 NJDJesper BrattPP
from Will Butcher, Taylor Hall
1–35% → 12%

Every player

Show both lineups

NJD

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Jesper Bratt L15:201+0.69−0.08+0.78+0.02−0.02+0.00+0.00
Andy Greene D18:28+0.16−0.02+0.00−0.00+0.01+0.18+0.00
Drew Stafford R12:45+0.16−0.01−0.01−0.00−0.00+0.18+0.00
Brian Gibbons C6:19+0.00−0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
Stefan Noesen R11:25−0.03−0.03−0.17−0.01+0.00+0.18−0.01
Nico Hischier C17:04−0.05−0.06−0.12−0.00−0.01+0.18−0.04
John Moore D17:03−0.10−0.08+0.01−0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Ben Lovejoy D18:28−0.12−0.01−0.11−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Damon Severson D18:01−0.13+0.01−0.08−0.03−0.03+0.00+0.00
Will Butcher D18:591−0.15−0.05−0.09−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Marcus Johansson L15:54−0.15−0.02−0.12−0.00−0.00+0.00−0.01
Travis Zajac C17:03−0.16−0.01−0.14−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Sami Vatanen D22:12−0.18−0.13−0.05+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Miles Wood L13:10−0.22−0.05−0.16−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Pavel Zacha C17:01−0.24−0.07−0.13−0.00−0.00+0.00−0.03
Taylor Hall L19:531−0.30−0.08−0.08+0.05−0.01−0.18+0.00
Brian Boyle C16:57−0.38−0.07−0.27−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.02
Kyle Palmieri C17:39−0.49−0.04−0.12+0.00+0.01−0.36+0.02
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Kenneth Appleby G46:04+2.22
Keith Kinkaid G12:15−2.22

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Travis Konecny R14:3011+0.76+0.09+0.85+0.01−0.00−0.18+0.00
Valtteri Filppula C18:011+0.54+0.01+0.56−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.03
Shayne Gostisbehere D20:091+0.22+0.12−0.09+0.02−0.01+0.18+0.00
Ivan Provorov D23:131+0.17+0.18+0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Sean Couturier C23:24+0.15+0.10−0.19+0.03−0.00+0.18+0.04
Michael Raffl L15:061+0.14+0.02−0.05−0.01−0.01+0.18+0.01
Jakub Voracek R22:08+0.07−0.01−0.00+0.09−0.01+0.00+0.00
Radko Gudas D18:081+0.06+0.06+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Tyrell Goulbourne L3:57+0.00+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jori Lehtera C11:01−0.00+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.01+0.00−0.01
Andrew MacDonald D17:28−0.03+0.02−0.04−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Claude Giroux R20:351−0.09+0.07−0.25+0.03−0.00+0.00+0.06
Brandon Manning D16:20−0.20−0.00+0.01−0.01−0.02−0.18+0.00
Nolan Patrick C11:37−0.23+0.02−0.24−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Robert Hagg D18:43−0.25−0.05−0.04+0.01+0.00−0.18+0.00
Wayne Simmonds R17:46−0.29+0.03−0.27−0.06+0.01+0.00+0.00
Jordan Weal C11:40−0.33+0.03−0.35−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Scott Laughton C8:581−0.56+0.01−0.22−0.01+0.00−0.36+0.02
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Michal Neuvirth G59:43+1.09

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.