NSH beat VGK 1–0. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kevin Fiala scored at 8:00 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 52% to 81%. Juuse Saros saved 6.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 8:00 | NSH | Kevin Fiala from P.K. Subban, Colton Sissons | 0–1 | 52% → 81% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Haula L | 18:34 | +0.18 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 3:51 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 20:06 | +0.09 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 17:37 | +0.05 | +0.41 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| William Carrier L | 9:36 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 21:27 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 20:43 | −0.08 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 19:57 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 11:59 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 15:05 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:12 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:04 | −0.20 | +0.26 | −0.28 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:25 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.13 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 19:12 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 22:18 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.30 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:38 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 18:40 | −0.33 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:38 | −0.57 | +0.23 | −0.66 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 57:58 | +1.12 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Fiala L | 16:39 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.06 | +0.31 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 7:19 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 24:12 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 14:01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 23:11 | +0.01 | +0.12 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miikka Salomaki R | 10:14 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:01 | −0.04 | +0.17 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 12:54 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Turris C | 19:19 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Scott Hartnell L | 9:34 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 17:38 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 14:26 | −0.28 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Pontus Aberg L | 11:24 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 22:19 | −0.32 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:01 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 14:31 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 20:03 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.02 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 13:30 | −0.56 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:44 | +6.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.