COL beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: J.T. Compher scored on the power play at 3:25 of overtime, moving COL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Calvin Pickard allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:24 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Gabriel Landeskog | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:55 | TOR | Matt Martin from Josh Leivo, Roman Polak | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 10:29 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Zadorov | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 14:04 | TOR | Roman Polak from Andreas Borgman, Patrick Marleau | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 4:34 | COL | Alexander Kerfoot from Nikita Zadorov, Nathan MacKinnon | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 18:05 | TOR | James van RiemsdykPP from Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 3:25 | COL | J.T. CompherPP from Samuel Girard, Carl Soderberg | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Martin L | 8:57 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.02 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Polak D | 21:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.19 | +0.90 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 15:13 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:06 | +0.20 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 21:35 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ron Hainsey D | 24:48 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 12:02 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 19:44 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 10:05 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Borgman D | 13:13 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Marincin D | 17:55 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 16:12 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:42 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 16:36 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 16:16 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 15:35 | −0.29 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 16:22 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.15 | −0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:52 | −0.57 | +0.09 | −0.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 62:35 | −1.99 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:17 | 1 | 2 | +0.98 | −0.07 | +0.58 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.05 |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 12:49 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 16:46 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.23 | +0.91 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:00 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.10 | +0.51 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Wilson C | 10:15 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 12:00 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Bourque L | 9:58 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 15:18 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lindholm D | 11:10 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 19:09 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 23:25 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Andrighetto R | 12:40 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 23:43 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 21:56 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 18:58 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 9:04 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 16:59 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 29:40 | −0.43 | −0.07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 63:25 | +0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.