NYR beat WSH 1–0 in a shootout. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. Ondrej Pavelec saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 11:35 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:03 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 22:05 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 13:50 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 19:44 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 11:50 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 13:35 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 8:50 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 8:28 | −0.25 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 19:20 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 22:47 | −0.38 | −0.33 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 12:32 | −0.44 | −0.04 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 13:48 | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 24:32 | −0.46 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:26 | −0.61 | −0.20 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.31 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 24:31 | −0.70 | −0.53 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 16:46 | −0.77 | −0.42 | −0.52 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:18 | −0.89 | −0.10 | −0.52 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 65:00 | +2.74 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 21:03 | +0.98 | +0.56 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.69 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:23 | +0.55 | +0.36 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.40 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 19:30 | +0.48 | +0.47 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 21:38 | +0.37 | +0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:40 | +0.34 | +0.32 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:28 | +0.23 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boo Nieves C | 7:53 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 19:18 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 20:27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 7:35 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 17:10 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 5:04 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 21:06 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 17:02 | −0.24 | +0.11 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 19:17 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 19:55 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 17:08 | −0.44 | −0.00 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 17:48 | −0.50 | +0.33 | −0.69 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Pavelec G | 65:00 | +3.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.