ARI beat WSH 3–2 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored at 4:33 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:40 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Jakub Vrana, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 1:28 | ARI | Christian DvorakPP from Alex Goligoski, Jakob Chychrun | 1–1 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 4:32 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Christian Djoos, John Carlson | 2–1 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 18:59 | ARI | Christian FischerPP from Clayton Keller, Jason Demers | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 4:33 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Max Domi, Alex Goligoski | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:37 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.22 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 21:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.10 | +0.45 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Brooks Orpik D | 17:15 | +0.10 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 15:25 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Vrana L | 12:34 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.22 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 12:07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 12:07 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 24:29 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 11:39 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 18:15 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:06 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Chorney D | 10:38 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:21 | −0.24 | −0.35 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 11:22 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 23:52 | −0.33 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 15:50 | −0.37 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 19:58 | −0.51 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| John Carlson D | 29:26 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.34 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 64:33 | +0.54 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fischer R | 17:14 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:02 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.13 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.03 | |
| Jason Demers D | 20:55 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.41 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 23:49 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.49 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 26:32 | +0.20 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:16 | +0.11 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 12:02 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 13:37 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 14:43 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 18:42 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.44 | −0.46 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:27 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zac Rinaldo C | 14:16 | −0.09 | +0.15 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 19:50 | −0.12 | +0.22 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 15:45 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 8:12 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 17:46 | −0.29 | +0.23 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Archibald R | 16:11 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:16 | −0.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.