PHI beat DET 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (DET 2.7, PHI 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Sean Couturier scored at 5:57 of the third, moving PHI’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Jimmy Howard allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:19 | PHI | Dale Weise from Radko Gudas, Nolan Patrick | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:58 | DET | Martin FrkPP from Dylan Larkin, Mike Green | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:50 | DET | Mike GreenPP from Dylan Larkin, Andreas Athanasiou | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 10:48 | PHI | Wayne SimmondsPP from Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 11:29 | DET | Gustav Nyquist from Henrik Zetterberg, Anthony Mantha | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 13:40 | PHI | Robert Hagg from Claude Giroux, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 5:57 | PHI | Sean Couturier from Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux | 3–4 | 52% → 80% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:26 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.11 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Green D | 22:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.09 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Martin Frk R | 12:09 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.21 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 19:31 | +0.11 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 2:58 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 14:17 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 21:07 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 18:46 | −0.17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 17:05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 14:43 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 18:32 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 14:53 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 18:53 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:48 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.22 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 21:39 | −0.29 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Booth L | 7:16 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 19:11 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.16 | −0.47 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 15:42 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 57:54 | −1.48 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Simmonds R | 19:52 | 1 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.42 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dale Weise R | 10:56 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 19:08 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.05 | +0.83 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 17:32 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 23:36 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 19:03 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 21:58 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.40 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Andrew MacDonald D | 23:15 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:55 | 3 | +0.02 | +0.34 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.05 | |
| Jori Lehtera C | 7:33 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 16:41 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Patrick C | 10:56 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 9:00 | −0.05 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 18:41 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Filppula C | 18:27 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 9:29 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jordan Weal C | 11:10 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Raffl L | 18:50 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 60:00 | −0.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.