MTL beat VAN 7–5. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Daniel Sedin scored at 17:39 of the second, moving VAN’s win probability from 29% to 53%. Anders Nilsson allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:37 | VAN | Thomas VanekPP from Derrick Pouliot, Sam Gagner | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 16:39 | MTL | Daniel CarrPP from David Schlemko, Charles Hudon | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 7:18 | MTL | Nicolas Deslauriers from Byron Froese, Jeff Petry | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 14:00 | VAN | Thomas Vanek from Alex Biega, Loui Eriksson | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 17:05 | MTL | Nicolas Deslauriers from Daniel Carr, Karl Alzner | 3–2 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 17:39 | VAN | Daniel Sedin from Thomas Vanek, Erik Gudbranson | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 19:13 | MTL | Jeff PetryPP from Andrew Shaw | 4–3 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 1:37 | MTL | Paul Byron from Max Pacioretty, Jonathan Drouin | 5–3 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 13:29 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin | 5–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 17:27 | MTL | Alex Galchenyuk from Phillip Danault | 6–4 | 91% → 99% |
| P3 18:59 | VAN | Thomas VanekPP from Brock Boeser, Henrik Sedin | 6–5 | 0% → 5% |
| P3 19:49 | MTL | Phillip DanaultEN from Max Pacioretty, Tomas Plekanec | 7–5 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 14:12 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.01 | +1.59 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Byron L | 17:02 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.10 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 25:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 12:35 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.66 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Carr L | 13:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.54 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jordie Benn D | 19:03 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Schlemko D | 20:34 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Shaw R | 13:45 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Karl Alzner D | 22:56 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 12:16 | 1 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:51 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Byron Froese C | 13:24 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Charles Hudon L | 13:27 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Plekanec C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jakub Jerabek D | 15:11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Morrow D | 14:16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:49 | −0.38 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 19:10 | 2 | −0.43 | +0.04 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 60:00 | −0.92 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Vanek L | 15:43 | 3 | 1 | +2.11 | −0.02 | +2.31 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Brock Boeser R | 20:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.09 | +0.55 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 13:32 | +0.16 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:49 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Del Zotto D | 17:54 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 24:50 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 14:35 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 10:31 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 17:52 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Sedin C | 17:06 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Daniel Sedin L | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 11:47 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 17:25 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reid Boucher C | 14:02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 20:48 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Markus Granlund C | 15:03 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 17:37 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.03 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 58:09 | −3.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.