WSH beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andre Burakovsky scored at 1:51 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ben Bishop allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:35 | WSH | Andre Burakovsky from Brett Connolly, Lars Eller | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:14 | DAL | Jamie BennPP from John Klingberg, Alexander Radulov | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 11:09 | DAL | Gemel Smith from Dan Hamhuis, Jason Spezza | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:12 | WSH | Dmitry Orlov from Nicklas Backstrom | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 15:53 | DAL | Alexander Radulov from Greg Pateryn | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 16:34 | WSH | Brett Connolly from Andre Burakovsky, Lars Eller | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 1:51 | WSH | Andre Burakovsky from John Carlson | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:18 | 2 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.13 | +0.80 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brett Connolly R | 12:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.09 | +0.33 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:39 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.04 | +0.42 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 15:03 | 2 | +0.26 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 13:03 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 11:42 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 12:44 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 20:49 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.13 | +0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 9:57 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 17:35 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 23:10 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:51 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:52 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.39 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 13:09 | −0.23 | −0.29 | −0.04 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 11:36 | −0.32 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:08 | −0.38 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 14:40 | −0.49 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.02 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 19:38 | −0.66 | −0.48 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 61:51 | +0.91 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gemel Smith C | 8:10 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.10 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Greg Pateryn D | 22:06 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.24 | −0.01 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Spezza C | 11:22 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Dan Hamhuis D | 21:35 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.23 | −0.20 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Radulov R | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.12 | +0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Jamie Benn L | 18:05 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Martin Hanzal C | 14:33 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Julius Honka D | 13:22 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 11:35 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Johns D | 16:00 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 14:36 | −0.01 | +0.16 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 14:11 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 16:19 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 23:45 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Remi Elie L | 12:17 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 24:10 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 15:29 | −0.12 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 21:30 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 61:51 | −1.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.