PIT beat ARI 4–2. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Olli Maatta scored at 19:45 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 49% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:38 | PIT | Carter RowneySH from Bryan Rust | 1–0 | 46% → 69% |
| P2 18:58 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Conor Sheary, Phil Kessel | 2–0 | 72% → 89% |
| P2 19:51 | ARI | Nick Cousins from Brad Richardson, Jordan Martinook | 2–1 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 9:43 | ARI | Max Domi from Clayton Keller | 2–2 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 19:45 | PIT | Olli Maatta from Evgeni Malkin, Patric Hornqvist | 3–2 | 49% → 97% |
| P3 19:54 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyEN unassisted | 4–2 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olli Maatta D | 20:24 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.11 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Rowney C | 7:44 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.09 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.02 | +0.34 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:14 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Riley Sheahan C | 15:32 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 17:07 | +0.14 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:05 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 9:36 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 13:32 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hunwick D | 14:55 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 16:46 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 27:12 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 3:51 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 16:38 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 14:19 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 20:28 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 13:55 | −0.40 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:00 | −0.66 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Cousins C | 10:16 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.03 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 16:15 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 15:27 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 16:52 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 13:48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 14:38 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:49 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.54 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:20 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 8:31 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 22:20 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:50 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Perlini L | 11:54 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 9:47 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:02 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 17:20 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:34 | −0.43 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 19:23 | −0.48 | −0.19 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 59:46 | −0.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.