Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2017-12-16 · Wells Fargo Center

1 – 2Final/OT

PHI beat DAL 2–1 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Shayne Gostisbehere scored on the power play at 3:50 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 54% to 100%.

Shots on goal
28 – 30
Expected goals
1.7 – 3.0
xG share
PHI 63%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

DAL goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

DALPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

PHI
2 G, 0 A · 23:14 TOI
On-ice +0.17 · Finishing +1.63
+1.80
DAL
Ben Bishop
63:50 TOI
GSAx +0.95
+0.95
PHI
Brian Elliott
63:50 TOI
GSAx +0.58
+0.58

Rough nights

PHI
0 G, 0 A · 20:44 TOI
On-ice +0.11 · Finishing −0.62 · Penalties −0.18
−0.64
DAL
0 G, 0 A · 17:01 TOI
Finishing −0.41 · Faceoffs −0.08
−0.45
DAL
Devin Shore
0 G, 0 A · 12:12 TOI
Finishing −0.20 · Penalties −0.18
−0.39

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalDAL–PHIWin prob.
P1 7:13 DALGemel Smith
from Remi Elie, Martin Hanzal
1–047% → 63%
P2 9:10 PHIShayne GostisbeherePP
from Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux
1–133% → 53%
OT 3:50 PHIShayne GostisbeherePP
from Jakub Voracek
1–254% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

DAL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Gemel Smith C8:461+0.50−0.20+0.87+0.00−0.00−0.18+0.00
John Klingberg D24:06+0.06+0.06+0.01+0.01−0.02+0.00+0.00
Jamie Benn L18:17+0.05+0.07−0.07+0.04+0.00+0.00+0.01
Julius Honka D12:48+0.04+0.05−0.01+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Stephen Johns D15:54+0.01+0.01+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Dan Hamhuis D22:44−0.00−0.18−0.02+0.01+0.01+0.18+0.00
Esa Lindell D25:04−0.01−0.04−0.01+0.01+0.03+0.00+0.00
Radek Faksa C16:05−0.02+0.06−0.11−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.04
Antoine Roussel L13:09−0.07+0.11−0.00−0.00−0.00−0.18+0.00
Jason Spezza C15:03−0.18−0.13−0.02−0.00−0.00+0.00−0.03
Remi Elie L8:541−0.18−0.16−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Alexander Radulov R20:31−0.21−0.02−0.03+0.01+0.00−0.18+0.00
Martin Hanzal C14:131−0.23−0.20−0.06+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.02
Tyler Pitlick C13:49−0.24+0.16−0.21−0.01+0.00−0.18+0.00
Greg Pateryn D22:24−0.31−0.27−0.06−0.00+0.02+0.00+0.00
Mattias Janmark C18:58−0.33−0.13−0.19−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Devin Shore C12:12−0.39+0.02−0.20−0.01−0.00−0.18−0.01
Tyler Seguin C17:01−0.45+0.04−0.41+0.01−0.00+0.00−0.08
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ben Bishop G63:50+0.95

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Shayne Gostisbehere D23:142+1.80+0.17+1.63+0.02−0.02+0.00+0.00
Travis Sanheim D14:15+0.16+0.07−0.08−0.00−0.01+0.18+0.00
Radko Gudas D17:48+0.16+0.03−0.06+0.01+0.01+0.18+0.00
Andrew MacDonald D20:18+0.11+0.11+0.01−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Scott Laughton C10:23+0.06+0.10−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.03
Taylor Leier L9:13+0.05+0.11−0.05−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jakub Voracek R22:322+0.05+0.05−0.24+0.07−0.01+0.18+0.01
Robert Hagg D16:41+0.05+0.04+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Ivan Provorov D24:39+0.02−0.15+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.18+0.00
Valtteri Filppula C20:10+0.01−0.16−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.18+0.00
Dale Weise R9:58+0.01+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Nolan Patrick C12:34−0.06−0.06−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.01
Michael Raffl L14:13−0.07−0.05−0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Claude Giroux R21:491−0.15+0.14−0.40+0.06−0.00+0.00+0.05
Jordan Weal C13:03−0.29+0.00−0.30−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Wayne Simmonds R20:13−0.30+0.24−0.44−0.10+0.01+0.00−0.01
Travis Konecny R14:05−0.34−0.03−0.29−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Sean Couturier C20:44−0.64+0.11−0.62+0.02+0.00−0.18+0.03
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Brian Elliott G63:50+0.58

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.