VAN beat SJS 4–3 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 4.4 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Sam Gagner scored at 4:34 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:44 | VAN | Markus GranlundPP from Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 10:45 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 14:27 | VAN | Markus Granlund from Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 11:56 | VAN | Brock BoeserPP from Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin | 1–3 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 18:16 | SJS | Marcus Sorensen from Justin Braun, Jannik Hansen | 2–3 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 14:11 | SJS | Brent Burns from Joel Ward | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 4:34 | VAN | Sam Gagner from Alexander Edler, Jacob Markstrom | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 26:51 | 2 | +1.65 | −0.15 | +1.77 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Sorensen L | 12:00 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 11:09 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 17:35 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Heed D | 11:51 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Ward R | 14:09 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 16:12 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 12:04 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 23:29 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:35 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jannik Hansen R | 11:43 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 22:40 | −0.26 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 24:54 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 13:17 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:38 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:53 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 16:31 | −0.53 | −0.11 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 24:15 | 1 | −0.61 | −0.16 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 64:34 | +0.52 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Granlund C | 19:29 | 2 | +1.52 | +0.10 | +1.44 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 17:47 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.21 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 16:13 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.12 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 28:57 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.34 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Sedin C | 17:07 | 3 | +0.20 | +0.27 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 20:18 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 13:29 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 23:32 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 17:28 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 13:53 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 17:05 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 20:15 | −0.15 | +0.11 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 8:46 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 12:51 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Alex Biega D | 18:14 | −0.35 | +0.23 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolay Goldobin R | 11:12 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 16:11 | 3 | −0.39 | +0.25 | −0.68 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Vanek L | 14:38 | −0.70 | +0.08 | −0.81 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 64:34 | +0.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.