CAR beat BUF 5–4 in overtime. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jaccob Slavin scored at 2:15 of overtime, moving CAR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Chad Johnson allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 10:16 | CAR | Justin Williams from Brock McGinn, Jordan Staal | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 10:46 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Evander Kane, Jake McCabe | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 1:20 | BUF | Jake McCabe from Evander Kane, Jack Eichel | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:00 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Jaccob Slavin, Justin Williams | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:03 | CAR | Derek Ryan from Brett Pesce | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 6:57 | CAR | Elias Lindholm from Derek Ryan, Sebastian Aho | 4–2 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 9:24 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Jake McCabe, Kyle Okposo | 4–3 | 5% → 21% |
| P3 9:34 | BUF | Jack Eichel from Evander Kane | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 2:15 | CAR | Jaccob Slavin from Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Staal C | 21:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.17 | +0.68 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.06 |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 24:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.16 | +0.69 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Elias Lindholm C | 15:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Justin Williams R | 18:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.20 | +0.44 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Derek Ryan C | 16:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.18 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:40 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 12:48 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 20:19 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:13 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 11:49 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 10:12 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 16:12 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 13:36 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 12:34 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 14:12 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.14 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 15:23 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 16:10 | −0.35 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 21:20 | −0.58 | −0.33 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward G | 62:13 | −0.35 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel C | 19:57 | 3 | 1 | +2.36 | +0.05 | +2.30 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Jake McCabe D | 18:28 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.15 | +0.77 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:22 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:35 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 14:17 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:18 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 23:46 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 26:25 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 15:37 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 13:54 | −0.12 | +0.19 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 14:39 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 7:25 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 9:03 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 11:55 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 20:43 | 3 | −0.28 | +0.28 | −0.57 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:20 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Antipin D | 14:59 | −0.45 | +0.05 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:02 | −0.82 | −0.13 | −0.65 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chad Johnson G | 62:15 | −2.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.