STL beat BUF 3–2 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko scored at 4:24 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Robin Lehner saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:40 |  STL | Brayden Schenn from Joel Edmundson, Alexander Steen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 16:17 | STL | Paul Stastny from Vladimir Tarasenko, Joel Edmundson | 0–2 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 1:42 | BUF | Evan RodriguesPP from Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane | 1–2 | 8% → 22% |
| P3 18:33 | BUF | Evan RodriguesPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Marco Scandella | 2–2 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 4:24 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Colton Parayko, Paul Stastny | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:29 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.16 | +1.55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:51 | −0.07 | −0.41 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.05 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 6:47 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 15:13 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 13:25 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Josh Gorges D | 12:59 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:18 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 17:53 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 13:11 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:59 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:00 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 15:01 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 29:17 | −0.32 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Pominville R | 16:09 | −0.34 | −0.22 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 26:35 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Falk D | 11:40 | −0.38 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 21:52 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.31 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 19:51 | −0.51 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 64:06 | +1.77 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 22:41 | 1 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.44 | +0.25 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:49 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.16 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.06 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 27:32 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.74 | −0.26 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.36 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 18:41 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 19:58 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 12:23 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 25:49 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.29 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Berglund C | 15:17 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 10:42 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 18:00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 17:12 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 8:19 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 17:50 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 11:54 | −0.19 | +0.16 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 12:36 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 19:47 | −0.23 | +0.31 | −0.31 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 10:19 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 64:24 | −0.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.