LAK beat CAR 3–2 in overtime. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Tanner Pearson scored at 4:40 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Scott Darling allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:27 |  LAK | Tyler Toffoli from Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 9:16 | LAK | Anze Kopitar from Tyler Toffoli, Christian Folin | 0–2 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 13:03 | CAR | Victor RaskPP from Teuvo Teravainen | 1–2 | 3% → 14% |
| P3 17:38 | CAR | Elias LindholmPP from Derek Ryan, Brock McGinn | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 4:40 | LAK | Tanner Pearson from Jake Muzzin, Jonathan Quick | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:31 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.34 | +0.58 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Victor Rask C | 16:52 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.35 | +0.43 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 23:59 | +0.34 | +0.43 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:03 | +0.25 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Jooris R | 9:25 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 20:30 | +0.16 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 17:57 | +0.07 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 18:46 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.18 | −0.28 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.04 | |
| Marcus Kruger C | 8:52 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 8:40 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 18:32 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 14:38 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.36 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:58 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 19:00 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Justin Williams R | 17:23 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:16 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 16:29 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 63:56 | −1.50 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.12 | +0.31 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.25 | +0.41 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alec Martinez D | 22:39 | +0.28 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 22:32 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.25 | +0.31 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Alex Iafallo L | 16:25 | +0.20 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 11:24 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 25:57 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Shore C | 15:39 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 9:19 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 14:16 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 18:08 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Torrey Mitchell C | 12:00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Folin D | 14:39 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marian Gaborik R | 13:24 | −0.33 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 26:42 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 16:49 | −0.38 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 14:22 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 20:52 | −0.41 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 64:40 | +0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.