EDM beat MTL 6–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Michael Cammalleri scored at 7:46 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Carey Price allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:46 | EDM | Michael Cammalleri from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Patrick Maroon | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:37 | EDM | Jujhar Khaira from Ryan Strome | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 1:11 | EDM | Jujhar Khaira from Ryan Strome, Kris Russell | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 2:24 | EDM | Milan LucicPP from Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid | 4–0 | 94% → 99% |
| P2 13:44 | MTL | Alex GalchenyukPP from Jeff Petry, Max Pacioretty | 4–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 2:39 | EDM | Oscar KlefbomPP from Mark Letestu, Milan Lucic | 5–1 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 3:09 | EDM | Yohann Auvitu from Connor McDavid, Jesse Puljujarvi | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:58 | MTL | Phillip DanaultPP from Byron Froese, Daniel Carr | 6–2 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:46 | 2 | +1.79 | +0.02 | +1.60 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 15:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.03 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 23:19 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.03 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Cammalleri L | 15:06 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.03 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yohann Auvitu D | 13:08 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kris Russell D | 21:10 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 15:53 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 21:13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 12:46 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:39 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Benning D | 21:12 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:12 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 14:12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 13:40 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Letestu C | 15:16 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brandon Davidson D | 15:01 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 17:59 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.53 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 13:39 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 59:59 | +0.16 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Danault C | 13:23 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.01 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 13:53 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.01 | +0.55 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Schlemko D | 18:06 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 20:09 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Jerabek D | 15:40 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 17:03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Carr L | 12:11 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 18:08 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 20:05 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 21:12 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 14:20 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 12:20 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 22:40 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Plekanec C | 15:30 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 12:40 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:16 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.06 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 16:17 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:20 | −0.47 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.36 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Niemi G | 37:28 | +0.03 |
| Carey Price G | 22:24 | −2.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.