STL beat MTL 4–3. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brayden Schenn scored at 12:11 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 49% to 83%. Carey Price allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:00 |  STL | Brayden Schenn from Jaden Schwartz | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:28 | MTL | Jordie Benn from Tomas Plekanec, Daniel Carr | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:32 | STL | Scottie Upshall from Dmitrij Jaskin | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 2:39 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Alex Pietrangelo | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 17:04 | MTL | Shea Weber from Andrew Shaw | 3–2 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 6:34 | MTL | Shea Weber from Andrew Shaw | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 12:11 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko | 4–3 | 49% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Schenn C | 17:43 | 3 | +2.65 | +0.09 | +2.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scottie Upshall R | 9:52 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:21 | +0.32 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:27 | +0.25 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 13:56 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 15:49 | +0.13 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 23:20 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 17:55 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 15:48 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:14 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 11:15 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:34 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 12:51 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:19 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 9:37 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.05 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:18 | −0.27 | +0.14 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 20:33 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 17:08 | −0.43 | +0.02 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hutton G | 3:27 | +0.00 |
| Jake Allen G | 56:33 | −1.61 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Weber D | 22:34 | 2 | +1.67 | −0.08 | +1.71 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordie Benn D | 21:36 | 1 | +1.02 | −0.04 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Karl Alzner D | 18:52 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 17:13 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Daniel Carr L | 12:32 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 21:51 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:41 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 18:01 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 14:05 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 18:21 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 17:04 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Schlemko D | 17:25 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Hudon L | 12:43 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 13:56 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Byron Froese C | 11:34 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 14:18 | −0.37 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:05 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Plekanec C | 17:08 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.08 | −0.30 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 59:01 | −1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.