Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2017-11-30 · United Center

4 – 3Final/OT

DAL beat CHI 4–3 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mattias Janmark scored at 0:51 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ben Bishop allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.

Shots on goal
35 – 22
Expected goals
4.1 – 1.9
xG share
DAL 69%
Home-ice start
CHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

DAL goalCHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

DALCHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

DAL
2 G, 0 A · 16:04 TOI
On-ice +0.09 · Finishing +1.41 · Penalties −0.18
+1.31
CHI
1 G, 0 A · 15:48 TOI
On-ice −0.06 · Finishing +0.77
+0.70
DAL
1 G, 1 A · 16:47 TOI
On-ice +0.19 · Finishing +0.40
+0.60

Rough nights

DAL
Ben Bishop
60:51 TOI
GSAx −1.40
−1.40
CHI
Jonathan Toews
0 G, 0 A · 21:53 TOI
On-ice −0.16 · Finishing −0.27 · Penalties −0.36
−0.77
CHI
0 G, 1 A · 26:59 TOI
On-ice −0.60 · Finishing −0.12
−0.74

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalDAL–CHIWin prob.
P1 14:46 DALMattias Janmark
from Gemel Smith
1–047% → 64%
P1 14:55 CHIAlex DeBrincat
from Ryan Hartman, Connor Murphy
1–136% → 53%
P1 17:20 DALRadek FaksaPP
unassisted
2–146% → 64%
P2 1:02 CHIArtem AnisimovPP
from Patrick Kane, Nick Schmaltz
2–235% → 53%
P2 14:04 DALRemi Elie
from Radek Faksa, Tyler Pitlick
3–247% → 70%
P3 4:34 CHIPatrick Kane
from Gustav Forsling, Nick Schmaltz
3–325% → 52%
OT 0:51 DALMattias Janmark
from Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg
4–348% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

DAL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Mattias Janmark C16:042+1.31+0.09+1.41−0.01+0.01−0.18−0.01
Radek Faksa C16:4711+0.60+0.19+0.40−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.02
Alexander Radulov R19:00+0.46+0.45−0.19+0.02+0.01+0.18+0.00
Jamie Oleksiak D14:41+0.44+0.45+0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
John Klingberg D20:251+0.41+0.46−0.06+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Stephen Johns D17:56+0.32+0.32+0.01−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Gemel Smith C7:461+0.31+0.31−0.00+0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Jamie Benn L22:14+0.29+0.42−0.14+0.05+0.00+0.00−0.03
Dan Hamhuis D22:39+0.26+0.24+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Greg Pateryn D22:27+0.23+0.23−0.01−0.00+0.02+0.00+0.00
Devin Shore C14:16+0.16+0.18−0.00−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Brett Ritchie R9:02+0.13+0.32−0.19−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Antoine Roussel L14:51+0.11+0.13−0.02−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Remi Elie L7:511+0.10+0.38−0.09−0.01−0.00−0.18−0.01
Jason Spezza C11:26+0.05−0.00−0.00+0.02−0.00+0.00+0.04
Tyler Pitlick C9:351+0.02+0.01−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
Esa Lindell D20:24−0.30+0.05−0.21+0.01+0.02−0.18+0.00
Tyler Seguin C21:231−0.60+0.59−1.18+0.01−0.00+0.00−0.02
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ben Bishop G60:51−1.40

CHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Alex DeBrincat R15:481+0.70−0.06+0.77+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
Patrick Kane R22:2011+0.33−0.25+0.56+0.05−0.03+0.00+0.00
Connor Murphy D15:531+0.12−0.03−0.03−0.00+0.00+0.18+0.00
Ryan Hartman R7:431+0.03+0.04−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Patrick Sharp L12:01+0.03+0.04−0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Artem Anisimov C20:471−0.16−0.57+0.44−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.01
Brent Seabrook D14:08−0.20−0.18−0.02+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Richard Panik R12:21−0.20−0.19−0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Cody Franson D12:39−0.21−0.21+0.01−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Brandon Saad L18:23−0.22−0.38−0.02−0.02−0.01+0.18+0.02
Duncan Keith D25:24−0.24−0.21−0.03+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
John Hayden C9:17−0.24−0.35−0.07−0.01+0.01+0.18+0.00
Nick Schmaltz C19:092−0.25−0.45−0.02+0.05−0.01+0.18+0.00
Tommy Wingels C9:31−0.36−0.34−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
Lance Bouma L10:22−0.38−0.35−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Jan Rutta D21:55−0.66−0.61−0.06+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Gustav Forsling D26:591−0.74−0.60−0.12+0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00
Jonathan Toews C21:53−0.77−0.16−0.27−0.02−0.00−0.36+0.04
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Corey Crawford G60:51−0.29

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.