Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2017-11-28 · T-Mobile Arena

3 – 0Final

DAL beat VGK 3–0. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Radek Faksa scored at 12:55 of the second, moving DAL’s win probability from 47% to 69%. Ben Bishop saved 1.9 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
30 – 34
Expected goals
2.2 – 1.7
xG share
DAL 56%
Home-ice start
VGK 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

DAL goalVGK goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

DALVGK

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

DAL
3 G, 0 A · 15:20 TOI
On-ice +0.06 · Finishing +2.24
+2.30
DAL
Ben Bishop
59:57 TOI
GSAx +1.87
+1.87
DAL
0 G, 0 A · 15:01 TOI
On-ice +0.13 · Penalties +0.18
+0.29

Rough nights

VGK
0 G, 0 A · 14:30 TOI
Finishing −0.61
−0.65
VGK
Malcolm Subban
60:00 TOI
GSAx −0.53
−0.53
VGK
0 G, 0 A · 20:28 TOI
On-ice −0.17 · Penalties −0.18
−0.36

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalDAL–VGKWin prob.
P2 12:55 DALRadek Faksa
from Dan Hamhuis, Greg Pateryn
1–047% → 69%
P2 19:33 DALRadek Faksa
from Gemel Smith, Brett Ritchie
2–072% → 89%
P2 19:41 DALRadek Faksa
from Antoine Roussel, Tyler Pitlick
3–089% → 97%

Every player

Show both lineups

DAL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Radek Faksa C15:203+2.30+0.06+2.24−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.02
Mattias Janmark C15:01+0.29+0.13−0.02−0.01+0.01+0.18+0.00
Greg Pateryn D19:101+0.27+0.07+0.01−0.00+0.01+0.18+0.00
Julius Honka D14:47+0.10+0.10−0.00+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Stephen Johns D17:28+0.05+0.12−0.06−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Alexander Radulov R19:47+0.04−0.00−0.14+0.00+0.01+0.18+0.00
Jamie Benn L18:49+0.03+0.02−0.00+0.03−0.00+0.00−0.01
Martin Hanzal C12:24−0.05−0.04−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.01
Antoine Roussel L12:081−0.05−0.00−0.04−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Esa Lindell D22:37−0.06−0.04−0.10+0.02+0.07+0.00+0.00
John Klingberg D24:31−0.06−0.04+0.01+0.02−0.04+0.00+0.00
Gemel Smith C11:041−0.10−0.02−0.08+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Dan Hamhuis D20:211−0.13+0.05+0.01+0.01−0.01−0.18+0.00
Tyler Pitlick C11:031−0.18−0.02−0.15−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Devin Shore C18:43−0.22−0.01−0.19−0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00
Tyler Seguin C18:11−0.30+0.05−0.19+0.01−0.01−0.18+0.02
Jason Spezza C12:46−0.33+0.10−0.40+0.00−0.00+0.00−0.03
Brett Ritchie R10:121−0.35−0.02−0.34−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ben Bishop G59:57+1.87

VGK

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Brayden McNabb D18:29+0.08−0.06−0.05−0.00+0.01+0.18+0.00
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L10:16+0.06+0.03−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.03
Brad Hunt D16:26+0.03+0.04+0.01−0.02−0.00+0.00+0.00
Deryk Engelland D20:19+0.02+0.02+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Brendan Leipsic L16:22−0.00−0.07−0.11+0.00+0.01+0.18−0.02
William Karlsson C17:16−0.05−0.00−0.07+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.01
Stefan Matteau C7:54−0.06+0.02−0.08−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Colin Miller D21:23−0.07−0.03−0.04−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Cody Eakin C14:43−0.09−0.05−0.07−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.04
Shea Theodore D22:20−0.11−0.06−0.06+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Erik Haula L17:48−0.16−0.08−0.06−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Tomas Nosek L13:52−0.17−0.08−0.08−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Oscar Lindberg L10:44−0.19+0.00−0.18−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01
Reilly Smith R15:56−0.24−0.03−0.03+0.01+0.00−0.18+0.00
Jonathan Marchessault C16:28−0.30−0.05−0.05+0.00−0.02−0.18−0.01
James Neal L16:46−0.34−0.07−0.28+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Nate Schmidt D20:28−0.36−0.17−0.04+0.01+0.03−0.18+0.00
Alex Tuch R14:30−0.65−0.05−0.61+0.03−0.00+0.00−0.02
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Malcolm Subban G60:00−0.53

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.