EDM beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored at 4:20 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cam Talbot saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:22 |  ARI | Christian Fischer from Christian Dvorak, Max Domi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:30 | EDM | Zack Kassian from Mark Letestu | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 19:11 | ARI | Oliver Ekman-LarssonPP from Max Domi, Clayton Keller | 2–1 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 14:25 | EDM | Matt Benning from Kris Russell, Milan Lucic | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 4:20 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Matt Benning | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:57 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.62 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 15:52 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.07 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Demers D | 23:29 | +0.43 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.23 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 11:43 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 11:30 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 25:55 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 18:56 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 15:51 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 7:00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 17:39 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 9:30 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 16:35 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.37 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Brendan Perlini L | 18:16 | −0.19 | +0.32 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:00 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 21:35 | −0.26 | +0.19 | −0.55 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 16:40 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:59 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.10 | −0.49 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:20 | −0.29 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Benning D | 21:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.23 | +0.88 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Zack Kassian R | 12:51 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.15 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:41 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.04 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 21:16 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:49 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 12:14 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 16:55 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 8:26 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 18:42 | −0.08 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 14:47 | −0.08 | +0.18 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Slepyshev L | 12:40 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yohann Auvitu D | 11:31 | −0.38 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 15:29 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.39 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:13 | −0.50 | −0.49 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 14:15 | −0.58 | −0.23 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 19:50 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 16:58 | 1 | −0.69 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 23:42 | −0.84 | −0.68 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:20 | +1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.