NYR beat VAN 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 2.2, NYR 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jimmy Vesey scored at 5:05 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 24% to 52%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:54 | VAN | Loui Eriksson from Henrik Sedin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 7:21 | VAN | Jake Virtanen unassisted | 2–0 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 17:40 | NYR | Jesper Fast from Nick Holden, Brendan Smith | 2–1 | 12% → 29% |
| P3 0:19 | NYR | Michael Grabner from Mats Zuccarello, Kevin Shattenkirk | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 1:00 | VAN | Sam Gagner from Thomas Vanek | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 5:05 | NYR | Jimmy Vesey from Rick Nash, Kevin Hayes | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 16:13 | +0.87 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.04 | ||
| Sven Baertschi L | 16:11 | +0.85 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.04 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 10:01 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.15 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Loui Eriksson L | 20:16 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.08 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 15:51 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.18 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.46 | |
| Henrik Sedin C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Derrick Pouliot D | 20:50 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 13:33 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Del Zotto D | 17:22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 23:04 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 16:30 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 12:52 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 17:59 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.44 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 24:05 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Vanek L | 13:28 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 21:40 | −0.43 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.46 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:35 | −0.46 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.36 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 12:59 | −0.75 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.46 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 65:00 | −2.58 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Vesey L | 16:58 | 1 | +1.92 | +0.10 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.04 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 18:05 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.04 | +0.90 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 10:00 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.10 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 18:12 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.04 | |
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 25:32 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.15 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.04 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 18:29 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Kampfer D | 14:26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 17:40 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Desharnais C | 6:46 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 8:07 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 19:41 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 15:46 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 27:49 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 17:40 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.31 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:55 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.46 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:59 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.36 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 21:35 | −0.76 | −0.12 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.46 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 65:00 | −0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.