VGK beat SJS 5–4 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored at 1:21 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Maxime Lagace allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:33 | VGK | Shea Theodore from Cody Eakin, Brendan Leipsic | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:16 | VGK | James NealPP from Erik Haula, Jonathan Marchessault | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 17:08 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Joonas Donskoi, Marc-Edouard Vlasic | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 0:10 | VGK | William KarlssonPP from Alex Tuch, Reilly Smith | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 6:55 | VGK | William Karlsson from Jonathan Marchessault | 1–4 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 8:08 | SJS | Brent Burns from Joe Thornton | 2–4 | 4% → 12% |
| P2 15:34 | SJS | Chris Tierney from Justin Braun, Joel Ward | 3–4 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 19:10 | SJS | Mikkel BoedkerPP from Joe Pavelski, Joe Thornton | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| OT 1:21 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Shea Theodore, James Neal | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkel Boedker L | 13:01 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 17:21 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 24:16 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.40 | +0.43 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 19:06 | 2 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 13:25 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.21 | +0.38 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 29:55 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.14 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Ward R | 8:31 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:45 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.31 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 13:45 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 23:10 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Ryan D | 8:32 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny O'Regan C | 8:42 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:36 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jannik Hansen R | 12:57 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:21 | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:08 | −0.37 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:04 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 41:05 | +0.18 |
| Martin Jones G | 20:10 | −1.33 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:33 | 1 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.20 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| William Karlsson C | 18:58 | 2 | +0.71 | +0.38 | +0.48 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 22:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.41 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| James Neal L | 18:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.12 | +0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Colin Miller D | 17:49 | +0.21 | +0.32 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 18:01 | +0.18 | +0.31 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 13:31 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 9:58 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 15:58 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.18 | −0.22 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 14:52 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Deryk Engelland D | 17:40 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 6:42 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:16 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.36 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:46 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:53 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 20:41 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 21:41 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Oscar Lindberg L | 13:21 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Subban G | 21:21 | +0.30 |
| Maxime Lagace G | 40:00 | −1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.