NJD beat MIN 4–3 in overtime. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: John Moore scored at 0:52 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:32 | NJD | Adam Henrique from Brian Gibbons, Andy Greene | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:32 | MIN | Nino NiederreiterPP from Mikael Granlund, Mikko Koivu | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 7:24 | NJD | Steven Santini unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 7:19 | NJD | Will ButcherPP from Adam Henrique, Ben Lovejoy | 3–1 | 77% → 94% |
| P3 11:14 | MIN | Mikael GranlundPP from Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu | 3–2 | 4% → 19% |
| P3 18:24 | MIN | Mikael GranlundPP from Ryan Suter, Eric Staal | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 0:52 | NJD | John Moore from Adam Henrique, Taylor Hall | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 16:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.83 | +0.10 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 |
| John Moore D | 19:59 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.15 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Butcher D | 14:28 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Santini D | 19:35 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:38 | +0.34 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 13:16 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 14:35 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:52 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 16:28 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 20:09 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 15:52 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 20:16 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 11:09 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 9:40 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 11:57 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 15:32 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 13:55 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 60:50 | −0.46 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:57 | 2 | 1 | +1.70 | +0.08 | +1.40 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Nino Niederreiter R | 18:45 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 8:39 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 8:56 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 9:46 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 11:59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 17:25 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 28:45 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:39 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 9:58 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Koivu C | 23:11 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Kyle Quincey D | 10:47 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 10:39 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Gustav Olofsson D | 8:37 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 22:37 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Staal C | 16:47 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.09 | |
| Jason Zucker L | 18:31 | −0.27 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 26:34 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.10 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 59:56 | −1.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.