ARI beat OTT 3–2 in overtime. ARI also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Anthony Duclair scored at 1:23 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:49 | OTT | Mark Stone from Tom Pyatt, Johnny Oduya | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:19 |  ARI | Anthony Duclair from Jason Demers | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 1:48 | OTT | Mark Borowiecki from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Cody Ceci | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 11:32 | ARI | Anthony DuclairPP from Alex Goligoski, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 1:23 | ARI | Anthony Duclair from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Derek Stepan | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 16:36 | 3 | +2.27 | +0.12 | +2.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Perlini L | 14:26 | +0.36 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 26:15 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.19 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 10:54 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 12:07 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 5:38 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 7:46 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 19:53 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 23:38 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 19:46 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:25 | −0.13 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 15:07 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 16:21 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 22:58 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 15:56 | −0.25 | +0.12 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 15:45 | −0.29 | +0.20 | −0.28 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 19:10 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 15:33 | −0.49 | −0.15 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 61:05 | +0.13 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 23:40 | 1 | +1.23 | +0.09 | +0.89 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 11:07 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Oduya D | 14:52 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 15:38 | +0.17 | +0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 14:01 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christopher DiDomenico L | 10:05 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 19:07 | +0.04 | +0.20 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:03 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:25 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 17:22 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 22:07 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 14:02 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 14:02 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Harpur D | 9:13 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:20 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 12:00 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 18:51 | −0.39 | +0.08 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 21:39 | −0.69 | +0.01 | −0.61 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Condon G | 61:23 | −0.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.