TOR beat NJD 1–0 in overtime. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Nylander scored at 4:57 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen saved 4.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OT 4:57 |  TOR | William Nylander from Nazem Kadri, Morgan Rielly | 0–1 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Lovejoy D | 14:56 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 18:42 | +0.08 | +0.35 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 15:34 | +0.06 | +0.12 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 24:01 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Moore D | 21:49 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 17:23 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 13:13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Damon Severson D | 20:01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:19 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brian Gibbons C | 14:20 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Steven Santini D | 23:16 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 14:48 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Zajac C | 16:11 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:58 | −0.28 | +0.46 | −0.92 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.03 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 14:30 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.03 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 16:42 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 20:52 | −0.36 | +0.48 | −0.89 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:33 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 64:57 | +1.67 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 16:36 | +0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 17:33 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Andreas Borgman D | 14:42 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Soshnikov R | 10:33 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 18:04 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 24:44 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 8:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 11:14 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:58 | −0.12 | +0.13 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 24:35 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 16:43 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Connor Carrick D | 14:47 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 17:34 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 24:17 | −0.32 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:02 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.32 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Leo Komarov R | 19:01 | −0.38 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 21:53 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.37 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:05 | −0.73 | −0.01 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 64:35 | +4.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.