CGY beat STL 7–4. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kris Versteeg scored at 14:29 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Jake Allen allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:32 |  STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Colton Parayko, Paul Stastny | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:54 | CGY | Mark Jankowski from Matthew Tkachuk | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 13:45 | CGY | Mark Jankowski from Jaromir Jagr, Sam Bennett | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:21 | STL | Jaden SchwartzPP from Alexander Steen, Brayden Schenn | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P3 5:39 | CGY | Sam Bennett from Mark Jankowski | 2–3 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 11:46 | STL | Alexander Steen from Paul Stastny, Joel Edmundson | 3–3 | 15% → 48% |
| P3 12:31 | CGY | Micheal FerlandPP from Johnny Gaudreau, TJ Brodie | 3–4 | 53% → 85% |
| P3 12:43 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn | 4–4 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 14:29 | CGY | Kris Versteeg from Troy Brouwer, Curtis Lazar | 4–5 | 51% → 88% |
| P3 18:00 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Mark Giordano | 4–6 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 18:57 | CGY | Michael FrolikEN from Matthew Tkachuk, Mikael Backlund | 4–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 20:46 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.01 | +1.62 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 20:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.10 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.04 |
| Alexander Steen L | 17:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.26 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:29 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 20:08 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 17:59 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 17:09 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:35 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 16:39 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 12:30 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 7:51 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 20:16 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 10:53 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:57 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 11:07 | −0.27 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Beau Bennett R | 12:19 | −0.29 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 9:53 | −0.33 | +0.09 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 15:11 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:43 | −2.74 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski L | 14:25 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | −0.05 | +1.40 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 16:25 | 1 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.34 | +0.61 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kris Versteeg R | 12:01 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.25 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 15:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Micheal Ferland L | 13:59 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.28 | +0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 25:01 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.30 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Stone D | 19:14 | +0.23 | +0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 11:25 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 17:25 | +0.08 | +0.34 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 23:16 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:36 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Brouwer R | 11:50 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 16:22 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaromir Jagr R | 15:55 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:41 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:41 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:16 | −0.26 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:23 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 39:50 | −1.14 |
| Mike Smith G | 20:00 | −1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.