WSH beat EDM 2–1 in a shootout. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.4 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dmitry Orlov scored at 5:14 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 24% to 52%. Braden Holtby saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 1:32 | EDM | Jujhar Khaira from Iiro Pakarinen, Ryan Strome | 1–0 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 5:14 | WSH | Dmitry Orlov from Tom Wilson, Madison Bowey | 1–1 | 24% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jujhar Khaira L | 14:16 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.21 | +0.34 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 22:23 | +0.19 | +0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:46 | +0.18 | +0.29 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 24:24 | +0.15 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 12:25 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.09 | −0.13 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 18:41 | +0.12 | +0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 17:52 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.03 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 22:58 | +0.01 | +0.47 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.31 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 16:17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yohann Auvitu D | 15:54 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 15:41 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 8:44 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 27:24 | −0.13 | +0.43 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.36 | ||
| Brad Malone C | 6:32 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 18:50 | −0.22 | +0.43 | −0.59 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:32 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 6:16 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.46 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 65:00 | +0.53 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Orlov D | 25:24 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.01 | +0.34 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 22:08 | +0.19 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.69 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 12:47 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 14:40 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 16:51 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Chorney D | 12:03 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 15:00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 16:34 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 15:54 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 6:29 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 7:31 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 23:48 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 16:52 | −0.26 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 9:02 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 22:21 | −0.48 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 22:33 | −0.54 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.14 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 23:57 | −0.58 | −0.61 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 29:17 | −0.75 | −0.64 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 65:00 | +2.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.