OTT beat COL 4–3. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mike Hoffman scored on the power play at 13:23 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 53% to 86%. Mike Condon allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:13 | COL | Blake ComeauSH from Mark Barberio, Erik Johnson | 1–0 | 46% → 64% |
| P2 0:12 | OTT | Mike HoffmanPP from Derick Brassard, Erik Karlsson | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 8:34 | COL | Alexander KerfootPP from Erik Johnson, Sven Andrighetto | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 9:16 | OTT | Mark Stone from Erik Karlsson | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 10:36 | COL | Sven Andrighetto from Alexander Kerfoot, Andrei Mironov | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 7:01 | OTT | Johnny Oduya from Nate Thompson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 13:23 | OTT | Mike HoffmanPP unassisted | 3–4 | 53% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Andrighetto R | 13:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.06 | +0.91 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.05 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 |
| Blake Comeau L | 15:32 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.53 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 20:59 | +0.13 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.36 | +0.02 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 11:45 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Rocco Grimaldi R | 8:09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 10:58 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nail Yakupov R | 12:38 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 11:12 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:00 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Andrei Mironov D | 10:43 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Samuel Girard D | 22:39 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Bigras D | 16:07 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 13:56 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 27:44 | 2 | −0.66 | −0.49 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Barberio D | 16:32 | 1 | −0.78 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.54 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 58:31 | −0.45 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 18:16 | 2 | +2.21 | +0.28 | +1.69 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 22:43 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.40 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Johnny Oduya D | 16:37 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.11 | +0.91 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 22:03 | 2 | +0.40 | +0.45 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Claesson D | 15:16 | +0.23 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 19:54 | +0.17 | +0.24 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 21:30 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.39 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.07 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 14:36 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ryan Dzingel C | 17:21 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christopher DiDomenico L | 15:04 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Harpur D | 14:12 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:44 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.06 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 20:29 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 6:09 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Wideman D | 9:59 | −0.15 | +0.15 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 14:52 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 16:19 | −0.24 | +0.25 | −0.76 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.08 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 14:17 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 29:24 | +0.53 |
| Mike Condon G | 30:29 | −2.32 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.