WSH beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: John Carlson scored at 4:14 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:00 | ARI | Clayton Keller unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:42 | ARI | Christian Fischer from Christian Dvorak, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 8:41 | WSH | Devante Smith-Pelly from Lars Eller | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P2 14:23 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| OT 4:14 | WSH | John Carlson from T.J. Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Fischer R | 12:43 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.28 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 20:57 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.19 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mario Kempe R | 9:33 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 17:30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 13:04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Mermis D | 7:07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 10:29 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zac Rinaldo C | 9:52 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 18:20 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 18:34 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 31:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Demers D | 28:58 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 17:49 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 24:07 | −0.47 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:01 | −0.55 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 11:26 | −0.62 | −0.25 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 15:09 | −0.63 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 18:09 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 63:53 | +0.08 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Carlson D | 27:41 | 1 | 1 | +1.45 | +0.44 | +0.80 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | −0.01 |
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 12:40 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.15 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:49 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.17 | +0.23 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.02 | |
| Taylor Chorney D | 14:33 | +0.22 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 23:18 | +0.18 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 11:41 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 10:26 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 22:40 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 23:24 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.26 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 13:15 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Djoos D | 16:24 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 5:58 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 22:04 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 24:19 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 17:03 | −0.21 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 13:16 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 10:55 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 64:14 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.