NYR beat FLA 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.7, FLA 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kevin Shattenkirk scored at 1:08 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Roberto Luongo allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:11 | FLA | Colton Sceviour from Micheal Haley, Derek MacKenzie | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:54 | NYR | Nick Holden from Ryan McDonagh, Jesper Fast | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 14:14 | FLA | Colton Sceviour from Derek MacKenzie, Micheal Haley | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 18:58 | NYR | Kevin Shattenkirk from J.T. Miller | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 5:18 | NYR | Michael Grabner from Jesper Fast | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 8:45 | FLA | Keith Yandle from Jamie McGinn, Aleksander Barkov | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 11:25 | NYR | Rick NashPP from Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller | 4–3 | 50% → 82% |
| P3 18:04 | FLA | Vincent TrocheckPP from Jonathan Huberdeau | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 1:08 | NYR | Kevin Shattenkirk from Rick Nash, J.T. Miller | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 23:06 | 2 | +1.99 | +0.22 | +1.58 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Holden D | 19:55 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 16:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.18 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Michael Grabner L | 14:11 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.06 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:32 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 16:51 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 17:55 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 16:22 | 3 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:05 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Hayes R | 16:14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 14:00 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:19 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Paul Carey C | 8:35 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 14:14 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 22:44 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 14:17 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 16:40 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Kampfer D | 14:32 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 61:08 | −1.60 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Sceviour C | 13:09 | 2 | +1.38 | +0.04 | +1.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 23:55 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:35 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.16 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 19:15 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Haley L | 7:36 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:02 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jared McCann L | 17:07 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 14:35 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 14:25 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian McCoshen D | 18:27 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:26 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 15:40 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 18:54 | −0.21 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:04 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Derek MacKenzie C | 12:00 | 2 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brickley L | 11:35 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:38 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 18:21 | −0.54 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 60:58 | −1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.