WSH beat NYI 4–3. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lars Eller scored at 16:39 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 51% to 91%. Jaroslav Halak allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:55 | WSH | Taylor Chorney from Chandler Stephenson, Lars Eller | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:01 | NYI | John TavaresPP from Anders Lee, Josh Bailey | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 16:19 | WSH | Lars Eller from Chandler Stephenson, Madison Bowey | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 16:18 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Josh Bailey, Mathew Barzal | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 16:30 | WSH | Alex Chiasson from John Carlson, Jay Beagle | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 7:00 | NYI | Anders Lee from Thomas Hickey, John Tavares | 3–3 | 19% → 48% |
| P3 16:39 | WSH | Lars Eller from Tom Wilson, John Carlson | 3–4 | 51% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 15:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.37 | +0.18 | +1.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Tavares C | 19:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.18 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:19 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.25 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.05 | |
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 11:13 | +0.22 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 17:06 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 16:23 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:13 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Seidenberg D | 19:49 | +0.11 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 11:20 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 20:58 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 15:49 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 23:09 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:03 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 11:25 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:29 | −0.30 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 13:53 | −0.37 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 17:01 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 58:39 | −2.22 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 16:46 | 2 | 1 | +1.86 | +0.02 | +1.62 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Taylor Chorney D | 12:16 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.15 | +0.92 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 13:13 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.72 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Djoos D | 13:24 | +0.11 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 24:33 | +0.02 | +0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 7:17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 13:00 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 10:51 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 12:11 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Madison Bowey D | 13:25 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 18:18 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 18:50 | −0.11 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 22:54 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:05 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 20:41 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:08 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Vrana L | 14:53 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 27:28 | 2 | −0.44 | −0.20 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 59:20 | −0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.