EDM beat DAL 5–4. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Benning scored at 17:33 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Ben Bishop allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:31 |  EDM | Connor McDavid from Ryan Strome, Leon Draisaitl | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:34 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Alexander Radulov, Dan Hamhuis | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:35 | EDM | Patrick Maroon from Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:58 | DAL | Alexander RadulovPP from Tyler Seguin, Devin Shore | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 13:46 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Kris Russell, Milan Lucic | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 16:19 | DAL | Jamie BennPP from Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 10:25 | DAL | Esa LindellPP from Jason Spezza, Dan Hamhuis | 4–3 | 50% → 80% |
| P3 12:16 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Milan Lucic | 4–4 | 17% → 51% |
| P3 17:33 | EDM | Matt Benning from Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse | 4–5 | 51% → 93% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Benn L | 19:49 | 2 | +1.26 | +0.15 | +1.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alexander Radulov R | 20:46 | 1 | 2 | +0.97 | +0.19 | +0.57 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Esa Lindell D | 16:44 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.05 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 13:04 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.36 | +0.03 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 27:25 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Ritchie R | 11:17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 19:48 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.22 | −0.34 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Remi Elie L | 8:51 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg Pateryn D | 18:52 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 10:47 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 17:35 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 9:35 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 14:28 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devin Shore C | 20:54 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.28 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 13:50 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Hanzal C | 14:22 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Marc Methot D | 19:32 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 17:21 | −0.73 | −0.16 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 59:00 | −2.34 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:34 | 2 | +1.53 | −0.12 | +1.68 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:57 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.07 | +0.63 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.08 | |
| Matt Benning D | 15:24 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.08 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 19:28 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.04 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:50 | 3 | +0.20 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 23:03 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Gryba D | 11:22 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 9:30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 15:40 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Slepyshev L | 7:12 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 27:39 | −0.10 | +0.15 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 12:03 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 11:21 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 17:00 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 14:07 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 19:20 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 7:16 | −0.41 | +0.11 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 16:44 | −0.58 | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:00 | −0.65 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.