BOS beat SJS 2–1. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Danton Heinen scored at 13:27 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Anton Khudobin saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:41 | BOS | Danton HeinenSH from David Backes, Kevan Miller | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 10:40 | SJS | Joe ThorntonPP from Tim Heed, Brent Burns | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:27 | BOS | Danton Heinen from Brandon Carlo, Tim Schaller | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Heed D | 20:16 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | −0.13 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 17:30 | +0.14 | +0.18 | −0.22 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.03 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:30 | +0.09 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 20:12 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 14:49 | +0.09 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 11:46 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:04 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Ward R | 9:40 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 16:06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 13:22 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:14 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 16:37 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 12:25 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:42 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Ryan D | 18:20 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 14:58 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:37 | −0.35 | −0.09 | −0.28 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 25:13 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 57:46 | +1.08 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danton Heinen L | 8:39 | 2 | +1.24 | +0.19 | +1.10 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Schaller L | 11:28 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.18 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 19:45 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 26:40 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:38 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 18:06 | −0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 20:33 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:23 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Backes R | 16:42 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Paul Postma D | 12:58 | −0.16 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 16:02 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 8:58 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 22:35 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 18:57 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Kenny Agostino L | 11:17 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 15:25 | −0.33 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 22:23 | −0.42 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 4:26 | −0.61 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.54 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 60:00 | +2.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.